Getting confused about causation and correlation

Seth Godin’s post this morning hit the nail on the head.

Have you noticed that in most cities, every time there are lots of umbrellas, it’s raining?

From this analysis, the obvious way to make it rain is to be sure that everyone has an umbrella, preferably a black one, since that seems to be the kind that’s most visible during big storms.

The trappings of successful marketing (or successful anything for that matter) aren’t always the causes. Sometimes they are the caused. Just because Apple did something doesn’t mean that it was responsible for Apple’s success. It may be that they were successful despite some of the things they did, not because of them.

I see a lot of individuals and brands struggle with this concept. We seem to forget sometimes all that goes into success. Being open to visualize success as the result of controllable AND uncontrollable causes is key. Sometimes there are things we can proactively do to aid in success, but sometimes is it as simple as getting out of the way of what is already taking place.

Related articles

• Getting confused about causation and correlation (sethgodin.typepad.com)

Stop Stealing Dreams

A remarkable manifesto about education and how its stealing our children’s willingness to dream. And if you think this only has to with education…then you’re sadly mistaken. It has to with U.S. economics, small business, technical innovations, arts, and how we see our lives. Take the time and read it…it may just change your outlook on creativity.

via Seth Godin’s “Stop Stealing Dreams“

The economy has changed, probably forever. School hasn’t.

School was invented to create a constant stream of compliant factory workers to the growing businesses of the 1900s. It continues to do an excellent job at achieving this goal, but it’s not a goal we need to achieve any longer.

In this 30,000 word manifesto, I imagine a different set of goals and start (I hope) a discussion about how we can reach them. One thing is certain: if we keep doing what we’ve been doing, we’re going to keep getting what we’ve been getting.

Our kids are too important to sacrifice to the status quo.

You can get your copy for free

Here are four versions of the manifesto. Pick the one that you need, and feel free to share. To download a file, you’ll probably need the option key or the right click button on your mouse… ask a teenager if you get stuck.

The On Screen version

Use this one to read it on a computer or similar device. Feel free to email to the teachers, parents and administrators in your life.

The Printable edition

This is the same document, but formatted for your laser printer or the local copy shop. You are welcome to make copies, but please don’t charge for it or edit it.

Here’s the Kindle edition

You’ll need to download it and then plug in your Kindle via a USB cable. Drag the file to the Documents folder on your Kindle and boom, you’re done.

The ePub edition

This should work with other types of ebook readers, but I haven’t tested it. Your mileage may vary, and if it doesn’t work, the PDF should.

The manifesto in HTML on the web

Useful for cutting and pasting, I guess. The PDFs are easier to read.

How I built the manifesto, plus back up links

If any of the links above don’t work, you’ll find back up PDF downloads here, as well as a long-ish essay about how I built them.

“Hold onto dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken-winged bird that cannot fly.” – Langston Hughes

Be an Influencer

The Influencers, Trendsetters or Early Adopters are the ones who take the Innovator’s ideas to rest of the world. Innovators are rarely accepted by the masses due to the the extremity of their ideas. It takes influencers to fashion their ideas and pass them along to the early majority which in turn pass them along to the late majority and laggards.

Taking great ideas and finding a way to solve the problems and the answer the concerns of your customer, follower or fan is the key to being seen as an Influencer. It will be the reason they come to you on a regular basis. Unleash your brand, to not only provide what everyone else provides, but to awaken new ideas that will give your customer the edge. They will be forever indebted to you and your brand…as long as you continue to provide new ideas that work.

Here’s a cool documentary which will hopefully get your creative juices flowing:

Recommended Reading: Diffusion of Innovations by Everett Rogers

Steve Jobs & Entrepreneurial Rifting

Seth Godin describes “Entrepreneurial Rifting” as the process of fixing problems…of leaping from one broken market to another. It’s a big tear in the fabric of the rules that we live by. It’s a fundamental change in the game, one that creates a bunch of new losers — and a handful of new winners. He is a rifter in his own rite. Another famous rifter was Walt Disney, who managed to successfully find a rift in the continuum of life, to bet everything on it, and to make a profit by doing so.

Steve Jobs was a extraordinary rifter, filling a need that our culture didn’t even know we needed. He continued to push the envelope of accepted wisdom. He didn’t care about his legacy or making more money, he was addicted to rifting. Godin said it this way:

First, he realized that personal computers could serve as a tool in the home as well as in business, and he was smart enough to find the right people to build the Apple I and II. At the time, there were no headlines about how brilliant Jobs was, but he paved the way for every single desktop computer in existence today.

Jobs’s second rift was actually more difficult to seize, because it wasn’t an obvious rift. Realizing that the graphical user interface that was developed for the Xerox Star could permanently change the way that computers worked, Jobs took a huge risk and came up with the Mac. Most entrepreneurs and virtually every large company would have laughed at the sheer hubris of it: to get lucky once and then to risk it all on a rift as narrow as this! Of course, we know what happened with the graphical user interface.

Jobs’s third rift was, in fact, reminiscent of one that Disney would have jumped on. Jobs saw that computers would forever change the way that animated movies are made. And Pixar, the production company behind “Toy Story” and “A Bug’s Life,” was his bet on that rift. Having just taken my family to see “Toy Story 2,” I can tell you that Jobs is on his way to a payoff of Disney-like proportions.

The surprising thing is that just about anyone could have seized any of those rifts and built hugely successful companies out of them. Jobs didn’t know anyone in Hollywood — and he didn’t need to. His success wasn’t about connections or reputation or access to capital. In fact, being part of the company that sold the Apple II actually hindered his ability to launch the Mac, because his shareholders and employees fought the idea for years. No, Jobs succeeded because, like all rifters, when he saw an opportunity, he was single-minded in his focus and in his desire to take advantage of it.

The question arises…will you be a rifter, an innovator, a creator or will you continue to be a worker ant, a follower accepting status quo and conventional wisdom? Will your brand leave a dent in the universe or is it merely another look-alike company trying so hard to repackage what someone else has already presented?

“Here’s to the crazy ones, the misfits, the rebels, the troublemakers, the round pegs in the square holes… the ones who see things differently — they’re not fond of rules… You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them, but the only thing you can’t do is ignore them because they change things… they push the human race forward, and while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius, because the ones who are crazy enough to think that they can change the world, are the ones who do.” – Think Different, narrated by Steve Jobs (February 24, 1955 – October 5, 2011)